COVID for Easter?

2 years into a pandemic Ontario data collection, and reporting of such, aren’t much improved. Some thoughts as we enter another super-spreader event (a.k.a. holiday).
Hospitalizations are increasing – but not by so much as most think

With testing availability altered/restricted at the end of hospital statistics should be best, but only since January 10th do we have data to distinguish hospitalized due to COVID from hospitalized and incidentally…

Jan. 10th, 2022 is the highest recorded number of deaths in COVID cases since the pandemic’s initial months, using the “accurate episode date”. The previous year the peak was January 8th.

Hospitalizations peaked 1-2 weeks later

Easter fell on April 4th, 2021: that wave’s deaths peak was the 6th (by case accurate episode date), and hospitalizations 2 weeks later.

We contract COVID by breathing in air others exhaled, so our holidays are super-spreader events.

Weekly deaths usually peak in January. The initial COVID surge provided an exception in 2020, and the ‘3rd wave’ produced a notable uptick in 2021 at roughly the same time – late April/early May.

So, there’s reason for caution.

OTOH…

 

Many countries are experiencing less impacts on care systems for the sick from high COVID cases. Natural immunity from prior infection adds to vaccinations. ON Hospitalizations have been rising for 3 weeks ICU/ventilated numbers haven’t.

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