Graphic of the week: The great “80% of world’s energy could be generated from renewables” fallacy

The unpublished notebooks of J. M. Korhonen

ImageIs a future without fossil fuels and without nuclear truly feasible?

In 2011, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, or SRREN. The report sought to determine the potential contribution of renewable energy sources to the mitigation of climate change. It reviewed the results from 164 individual scenarios derived from 16 different models, all developed since 2006.

For some, the report’s conclusions were sobering: nearly half of the scenarios suggested that renewable energy sources might contribute no more than 27% of the world’s energy supply by 2050 (see Chapter 10, p. 794). Even when counting only the most aggressive scenarios — the ones where atmospheric CO2 concentrations are stabilized to less than 400 parts per million — the median estimate of world’s renewable energy supply in 2050 was somewhat less than 250 exajoules; or, in other words…

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