IESO reports show failure to address systemic changes

Yesterday Ontario’s system operator released a number of reports. Personally these reports provide opportunities to check the performance of the system compared to my expectations, and estimates, and they also provide an indication of how well the IESO adjusted to taking over the responsibilities of the former Ontario Power Authority (OPA) after 2014.

The data released includes:

• Updated Ontario Energy Report website with 2016 1st quarter information, with related electricity report (.pdf), and data file (.xlsx)
• 2016 Q1 Progress Report on Contracted Electricity Supply (.pdf)
• 18 month outlook (.pdf) and related date file (.xlsx)

On first flip through the reports, the graphic that most caught my eye was the 18-month outlook’s “Table 4.1 Existing Generation Capacity as of…” This table shows not only what the IESO considers the capacity, by fuel type, participating in their market, but also what I will call “Capacity Value” and they call “Forecast Capability at Outlook Peak.” This is an important number because it’s used to measure the system’s ability to meet anticipated peak demand. The numbers that caught my attention were a 280 megawatt (MW) capacity of solar, with the forecast capability at peak of 28 MW.  The 10% capacity value that indicates is sharply reduced from the 18 month forecast of June 2015.

Let’s ignore the low installed value for solar for a fleeting moment, and concentrate on the reduced capacity value. This June’s 18 month report explains it:

when that grandchild asks me what I did for the planet

Ontario’s Pravda is reporting the head of the province has written, in introducing “the plan”:

“When my grandchildren ask me what we did to help our planet I want to be proud of what we accomplished.”

When that child asks me I’ll be able to say I had a house powered solely on electricity, got me a NEST thermostat, between my wife and I planted hundreds of trees (not evenly divided), we cleaned up the ash bore damage and supplemented electric heat with a high efficiency wood stove, and at times we even grew our own carrots – and then I just might turn around, drop trou and let the sun shine out of my ass.

Should I have my own grandchildren, that won’t likely be my response – particularly as if they ask this question they’ll probably notice the gas stove, and barbeque…

And furnace.

What’s in the plan that makes it the thing wherein Kathleen will catch the conscience of the king grandchild?

California Dreamin’ in Ontario

Important article re: Ontario’s poorly chosen cap-and-trade partner, and the elusive carbon revenue stream

Consumer Policy Institute

Ontario’s cap and trade backers are excited for the billions of dollars in new money the scheme will create. California shows why the reality might be much different.

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