Solar driving Ontario electricity pricing

Some messages from my shadow report/estimates of the electricity sector in Ontario over the past 7 days.

The growth in solar capacity combined with the switch in “on-peak” pricing periods to the afternoon combined to make the “On-Peak” pricing periods the lowest valued periods of supply to the IESO market – in stark contrast to the valuation imposed on regulated price plan consumers, whom the Ontario Energy Board decided to have charged $180 per megawatt-hour during these hours.

wk18rates

Perhaps that variance in price makes sense. My estimates of hourly supply costs show solar now often exceeding nuclear:

wk18costs

For clarity, here’s the graph of generated megawatts by hour, which is not as similar to the graph of costs as some might expect.

Wk18supply

One final graphic illustrates the estimated share of “Class B” pricing attributable to average supply cost as well as the transfer of costs from “Class A” and Exporter supply sold below that average supply cost:\CostComponents

The graphics in this post are all captured from my weekly reporting page. While that page will update next week, the weekly data is kept in spreadsheets in this folder.


For an explanation of how spasmodic renewable supply is driving pricing, see Beyond expectedly high cost: 2015 Ontario Electricity Summary Part 3

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